Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize

Chomitz, Kenneth M. and Gray, David A. (1996) Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize. [Other peer-reviewed publication]

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    Rural roads promote economic development, but they also facilitate deforestation. To explore this tradeoff, this article develops a spatially explicit model of land use and estimates probabilities of alternative land uses as a function of land characteristics and distance to market using a multinomial logit specification of this model. Controls are incorporated for the endogeneity of road placement. The model is applied to data for southern Belize, an area experiencing rapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture, using geographic information system (GIS) techniques to select sample points at 1-kilometer intervals. Market access, land quality, and tenure status affect the probability of agricultural land use synergistically, having differential effects on the likelihood of commercial versus semisubsistence farming. The results suggest that road building in areas with agriculturally poor soils and low population densities may be a “lose-lose” proposition, causing habitat fragmentation and providing low economic returns.

    Item Type: Other peer-reviewed publication
    Related URLs:
      Publisher: The World Bank
      Subjects: (H) Protected Areas > (HC) Forest Reserve
      (I) Socio-Economic Information > (IA) Economic Impacts
      (Z) Other or Unspecified
      Publication Sources: (1) Environmental Research Institute
      Date Deposited: 08 Feb 2018 10:16
      Last Modified: 08 Feb 2018 10:16

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